Foxx Won 8 Counties. Guilford and Watauga Still Have Her Down by 99.

Republican Rep. Virginia Foxx won eight of the ten counties in North Carolina’s 5th District. She is still down 99 votes. Democrat Chuck Hubbard’s margins in Guilford and Watauga alone wiped out a 54,095-vote Foxx net everywhere else — and thousands of provisional and military ballots have not been counted yet.

Unofficial results from the North Carolina State Board of Elections precinct file show Hubbard at 139,034 (48.70%), Foxx at 138,935 (48.66%), and Libertarian Robert B. Luffman at 7,529 (2.64%). The gap is 99 votes out of 285,498 cast — about three-hundredths of a percentage point. Every precinct is in. The race is not certified.

Hubbard posted Thursday night that he is “prepared to fight to count every vote while building out our office.” Foxx’s campaign said the counting process “has not ended under state law,” that military ballots may still be outstanding, and that provisional ballots must still be counted. She noted that more than 1,000 provisional ballots were cast in this contest two years ago and that Republicans “netted a total that would eclipse the current margin.”

Eight counties for Foxx. Two for Hubbard.

The NCSBE precinct file breaks the race open by county. Foxx carried Alexander (+6,233), Alleghany (+1,749), Ashe (+3,053), Caldwell (+9,321), Rockingham (+7,512), Stokes (+7,694), Surry (+8,427), and Wilkes (+10,106). Combined, those eight counties gave her a 54,095-vote net.

Hubbard carried only Guilford and Watauga. In the district’s share of Guilford he led by 47,650 (75,614 to 27,964). In Watauga — home to Appalachian State — he led by 6,544 (14,802 to 8,258). Those two areas alone produced a 54,194-vote Hubbard net, enough to put Foxx under by 99 once Luffman’s share is in the mix.

WXII reported that Hubbard lost to Foxx by more than 75,000 votes in this same district in 2024. Two years later the seat hangs on a three-digit margin and a stack of ballots that have not been accepted yet.

Provisionals, military ballots, and the recount clock

On Nov. 5 the State Board released county provisional counts for the Nov. 3 general election. Local outlets totaling the 5th District’s counties put the provisional stack at roughly 2,400 to 3,130 ballots, with Guilford’s countywide 1,606 the largest share — only part of Guilford sits in the district. County boards research each ballot and decide whether to count it. Provisional and cured absentee ballots that qualify are added by Tuesday, Nov. 10. Mailed military and overseas ballots postmarked by Election Day and received by 5 p.m. Nov. 12 are counted by the Nov. 13 county canvass.

North Carolina does not trigger an automatic recount. Under N.C.G.S. § 163-182.7, a trailing candidate in a multi-county congressional race may demand a recount when the margin is 1% or less of the votes cast. The written demand must reach the State Board by noon on the second business day after the Nov. 13 canvass — noon Tuesday, Nov. 17. The State Board is scheduled to certify at 11 a.m. Nov. 24.

Foxx’s campaign said it expects local officials to “act with the utmost integrity” as the final votes are tallied. Hubbard said he trusts the boards “to complete their work correctly and fairly.” Neither candidate has a certified win. The 99-vote lead sits on top of a provisional and military stack that is still being processed.

What to watch: Nov. 10 provisional and cure decisions; Nov. 12 military/overseas deadline; Nov. 13 county canvass; whether the trailing candidate demands a recount by noon Nov. 17.