Gas Just Fell Below $4 for the First Time Since July. It Could Keep Dropping Into Thanksgiving.

For the first time in nearly four months, the average gallon of gas in America costs less than $4. AAA put the national average for regular at $3.9788 on Tuesday, down from $4.0093 on Monday, ending a run that started on July 20.

That stretch lasted 113 days, according to AAA. It is the second longest on record above $4. Only the 158 days in 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine, ran longer. The last time the average sat below $4 was July 19, when it was $3.99.

The drop has been fast. Prices are down about 17 cents from a week ago and about 39 cents from a month ago, when the average was $4.37. Gas is cheaper this week in all 50 states, AAA said.

Oil is falling with the war winding down

The biggest push is coming from oil. The world benchmark, Brent crude, briefly dipped below $90 a barrel on Tuesday for the first time since August, CNBC reported, as crude shipments out of the Persian Gulf keep recovering from the Iran war.

President Trump has spent the past few days telling the world the fighting is close to done. He said Tuesday that America’s allies in the Middle East want him to hold off on new strikes while talks with Iran continue, while warning that the U.S. stays “locked and loaded” if that changes, according to NPR. Oil traders have been betting he means it. Every sign that the Gulf stays open takes a little more fear out of the price of a barrel, and that shows up at the pump a few weeks later.

The government’s own numbers point the same way. Energy prices rose just 0.7% in October after jumping 5.2% in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the gasoline part of that index rose 1% after a 9.1% surge the month before. The worst of the war spike is behind drivers.

The calendar is helping too

Not all of this is about Iran, and the experts are honest about that. Every fall, stations switch from the summer blend of gasoline to the cheaper winter blend. Federal rules require the summer blend, which is made to evaporate less in the heat, from June 1 to Sept. 15, CBS News explained. After that, stations can sell the cheaper fuel. People also drive less once vacation season ends, and refineries are coming back online after their fall maintenance.

“It’s also perfectly normal for gas prices to be falling at this time of year, so if they weren’t, there would really be something wrong,” Bespoke Investment Group told CNBC. AAA says prices usually fall 10 to 30 cents a gallon during the winter months.

Still not cheap, and diesel hurts most

Drivers should not mistake this for normal. A year ago the national average was $3.07, more than 90 cents lower than today. “Before this year, the national average had never gone above $4 a gallon in November,” said Marie Dodds of AAA Oregon/Idaho. AAA spokesperson Aixa Diaz told CBS, “We’re still a ways away from even being close to normal for this time of year.”

Diesel is the sore spot. It averages $6.16 a gallon, AAA says, down from $6.53 in late September but still about $2.40 more than a year ago. Diesel moves the trucks that carry nearly everything people buy, so it takes longer for the relief to reach grocery shelves.

Where you live matters a lot. California is the most expensive state at $5.71 a gallon, followed by Hawaii at $5.63 and Nevada at $5.04. In Utah, the average is $4.31, ninth highest in the country.

Thanksgiving could be cheaper still

The good news for anyone driving to see family later this month is that the trend looks set to keep going. Patrick De Haan, the gas price analyst at GasBuddy, told CBS he expects prices to keep easing into the Thanksgiving holiday. Dodds said the drop “may spur some road trips by folks who were still on the fence about traveling for Thanksgiving.”

There is one thing that could change all of that. If the talks with Iran fall apart and the shooting starts again, oil would likely jump and gas would follow. For now, oil is falling, the Gulf is open and the price on the sign is finally starting with a 3.

Most drivers will not care much why the price is falling. They will notice that it costs less to fill the tank this week than it did last week, and less than it did a month ago, when the war was still pushing oil higher by the day.