Haley Stevens Won 731,160 Democratic Primary Votes. Two Days Out, She Endorsed Republican Mike Rogers

Three months ago, Rep. Haley Stevens came within 13,792 votes of becoming the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Michigan. On Sunday, two days before Election Day, she endorsed the Republican. "I am endorsing Mike Rogers for the United States Senate today," the four-term congresswoman wrote on X, above a selfie video recorded in a car.

"As you may have seen, our Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate, Abdul, said that I was no longer welcome in his campaign and that I should stay away. And he's right," Stevens said in the video. "And that's why I am endorsing Mike Rogers for the United States Senate today. I don't belong in Abdul's campaign."

She went after the left-wing streamer who has campaigned with Democrat Abdul El-Sayed. "I do not stand with Hasan Piker," she said. What Michigan's children see, she said, "is not hate and is not what we are getting out from our Democratic nominee right now." She closed with: "I'm still a very proud Democrat."

Church with Rogers, not El-Sayed

Stevens had been due at a Detroit church on Sunday morning with El-Sayed and Rep. Jim Clyburn of South Carolina, an event Democratic leaders set up to patch over the bitter August primary. Instead she attended the service at Perfecting Church in Detroit with Rogers. A Rogers spokeswoman, Abby Ronson, confirmed the appearance to NBC News and said, "Mike welcomes her."

"Abdul made it clear I was not welcome," Stevens told reporters there, according to FOX 2 Detroit. "Ninety percent of my votes are going to Democrats. I am going to cast my vote for Senate for Mike Rogers. We can't stand for hate."

Rogers said he was "honored" to have her support. "This is more a statement about standing together against hate and the future of this state and this country than it is anything else," he told reporters, according to NBC News. "She reminded me at the end of the call, 'Remember, I'm still a Democrat.'"

How the break happened

The fight began over an ad. Rebellion PAC, an outside group, ran a spot made by Cenk Uygur, the uncle of Piker, that tied U.S. aid to Israel to what Michigan families pay for groceries. El-Sayed's campaign said it was not affiliated with the ad.

In a statement Friday, Stevens called that answer not good enough. "A disclaimer is not a condemnation, and everyone in my community knows the difference," she wrote. She said the ad "dramatized" an argument El-Sayed "has made in his own words throughout this campaign: that Israel is the reason Michigan cannot afford schools, health care, and child care." She added: "The Jewish and African American communities of my district deserve to see their leaders show up for them rather than fight over them."

El-Sayed answered that evening with a statement saying Stevens "seems intent on relitigating a primary that ended three months ago." It urged supporters to "focus on the task at hand: that's beating Mike Rogers, holding Trump accountable, and getting money out of politics." It called Rogers "Trump's hand-picked candidate."

NBC News reported Saturday that El-Sayed's campaign had asked Stevens to stop attending its events. Rep. Debbie Dingell, a Michigan Democrat who helped plan the church event, told CNN she asked Stevens not to come because the dispute had become a distraction, Axios reported.

Rogers moved fast. "If you are a Haley Stevens voter who rejects this bigoted and hateful candidate, you have a home with us," he posted Friday. Stevens' fiancé, Jason Turkish, had already said he would vote for Rogers.

The voters she brings

The August primary was close. El-Sayed won 744,952 votes, or 48.45%, to Stevens' 731,160, or 47.55%, according to the certified results. State Sen. Mallory McMorrow took 61,516. That means more Democratic primary voters picked someone other than El-Sayed than picked him. The Board of State Canvassers certified the results on Aug. 24.

Within hours on Sunday, the betting market moved. On Polymarket, the price of a bet that Republicans win the seat sat at 19.5 cents in the morning, before word of the church visit spread. It hit 30.5 cents soon after Stevens posted her video, its highest since Oct. 28, and later settled near 27.5 cents.

Every public poll in October was taken before Stevens switched. El-Sayed led in all of them, by 1 to 7 points among likely voters. The closest were InsiderAdvantage's Oct. 21–22 survey, at 47% to 46%, and Marist's Oct. 15–18 poll, at 50% to 48%. A Rasmussen Reports poll taken Oct. 28–29 had El-Sayed ahead 49% to 44%.

The backlash

Democrats turned on her fast. Her longtime chief of staff, Justin German, said he and other members of her office had resigned, NBC News reported. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said "Senate Democrats are united in our support for Abdul El-Sayed" and called Rogers "a tool of Donald Trump and billionaire donors."

A person close to El-Sayed told Axios the endorsement was "good for Abdul" because it cast Stevens as part of the party establishment.

More than 2 million Michigan votes had been cast by mail or early in person before Sunday, NBC News reported. The rest come in Tuesday, Nov. 3.