Lauren Boebert Trails by 2,513 in Colorado’s Reddest District. Her Biggest County Swung 22,555 Votes Left.

Lauren Boebert is behind in the most Republican congressional district in Colorado, and the count isn’t done. In the Colorado Secretary of State’s unofficial results Thursday morning, Democrat Eileen Laubacher had 176,162 votes in the 4th District to Boebert’s 173,649. That’s a 2,513-vote gap out of 361,480 ballots, or 0.7 points. No one has called the race.

The gap is closing. Laubacher led by about 5,000 at midnight on election night. By 2 p.m. Wednesday it was 5,073, by 7 p.m. it was 3,405, and by Thursday morning it was 2,513. Since Wednesday afternoon, every update has cut into it.

Where the votes went

Two years ago Boebert won this seat by almost 52,000 votes, 240,213 to 188,249. Trump carried it by more than 18 points. So how is she losing?

The answer is mostly one county. Douglas County, the suburbs south of Denver, casts more than half the district’s votes. In 2024 Boebert won its part of the district by 1,343 votes. In this year’s count so far, Laubacher leads there by 21,212. That’s a 22,555-vote swing in one county, almost nine times the size of her current lead.

Larimer County’s piece around Loveland moved the same way, from a 2,538-vote Democratic edge in 2024 to 9,518 now. The plains held. Boebert is still winning Weld, Elbert, Logan, Morgan, Yuma and the farm counties by wide margins, often 3 to 1 or better. It just isn’t enough to cover the suburbs.

Don’t blame the Libertarian for this one. Douglas Mangeris has 11,669 votes, more than four times the gap. But the Libertarian in this race two years ago, Hannah Goodman, got 11,676. Third-party voters showed up in the same numbers. The drop is in Boebert’s own column.

The ballots still out

NBC News estimates about 29,000 votes are left to count districtwide. To catch up, Boebert would need about 52.8% of them. That’s a tall order if the leftovers come from Douglas County, and a much easier one if they come from the plains.

Here’s what we know about where they are. Douglas County’s last update on the state results site was posted at 5:09 p.m. Wednesday, and it hadn’t added a new batch by Thursday morning. Weld County had 89 of its 96 district precincts fully reported. Elbert posted again Thursday morning. Most of the eastern plains counties finished on election night.

Then there are the ballots that can still be fixed. Under Colorado law, a voter whose mail ballot was flagged for a signature problem or missing ID has until the eighth day after the election to cure it. Military and overseas ballots get the same window. This year that’s Wednesday, Nov. 11.

The recount math

Colorado orders an automatic recount when the gap is half a percent of the leader’s votes or less, under C.R.S. 1-10.5-101. With Laubacher at 176,162, that line is 880 votes. The gap would have to shrink by about 1,600 more to get there. The recount happens only after county canvass boards certify the count. Outside that, either side can request and pay for a recount within 22 days of the election, which is Nov. 25.

Boebert knows this ground. In 2022, in her old 3rd District on the Western Slope, she won by 546 votes, the closest House race in the country that year, and a recount confirmed it.

Trump’s last word

On Election Day morning, Trump posted a full endorsement. “A MAGA Warrior, who has been with us from the very beginning,” he wrote, and he called Laubacher “Reckless, Radical, and Dangerous!”

Laubacher is a retired Navy rear admiral and former National Security Council official, and she ran as a moderate. She also had money. Colorado Politics reported she raised nearly $14 million, more than 10 times Boebert’s $1.2 million. “Tonight we may not know the outcome of this election,” she told supporters in Highlands Ranch after midnight, “but we know what we stood for.” Boebert hasn’t posted on her campaign account since election night.

Next door, Republican Rep. Jeff Hurd took the lead in the 3rd District overnight, 160,263 to 154,867 over Democrat Dwayne Romero, in the state’s count. If Boebert loses, Hurd could be the only Republican in Colorado’s House delegation.

What to watch: Douglas County’s next batch, the last Weld precincts, the Nov. 11 cure and military deadline, and whether the gap falls under 880 before the counties certify.