Paul LePage Flipped Maine’s Trump District by 5,418 Votes. Dunlap Conceded Before Ranked Choice.

Matt Dunlap conceded Maine’s 2nd Congressional District on Thursday. Paul LePage’s lead was already too big for ranked choice to fix.

The Maine Secretary of State’s Office said municipalities reported 341,248 ballots in the race: LePage 170,263 (49.894%), Dunlap 164,845 (48.307%), 123 declared write-ins, and 6,017 blanks. That is a 5,418-vote first-choice lead — and 362 votes shy of the majority that would have ended the count on Election Day.

Because no candidate cleared 50%, Secretary of State Shenna Bellows’s office said ranked-choice tabulation still begins Monday, Nov. 9, at 10 a.m. at the Maine Department of Public Safety headquarters in Augusta. State law requires the runoff when blanks and write-ins keep the leader under a majority.

“This isn’t the result we were hoping for, and I’m disappointed that we came short,” Dunlap, the state auditor and former secretary of state, said in a concession statement. “Congratulations to Paul LePage, I wish him the best.” His campaign said the runoff would not change the outcome.

Brent Littlefield, a senior adviser to LePage, said he had spoken with Bellows and that blanks and write-ins might trigger ranked choice under the state’s reading of the law. “It is very clear from our campaign team’s work yesterday talking one-on-one with local town clerks, and the publicly available numbers, that Paul LePage is the Congressman-Elect,” he wrote. “Paul’s vote margin is extremely large.”

LePage, Maine’s former two-term Republican governor, had already declared victory Wednesday. “If it is good for Maine, I will work hard to make it happen. If it is bad for Maine, I will oppose it,” he posted. “I will work with anyone if it is in the best interest of Maine.”

A Trump district Democrats held for eight years

President Donald Trump carried Maine’s 2nd in 2016, 2020, and 2024. Democrats still held the House seat for four terms under Rep. Jared Golden, who retired rather than seek a fifth. Golden won three of those races only after ranked-choice runoffs — including 2024 against Republican Austin Theriault.

Golden tipped his hat Thursday anyway.

“Four times, the people of Maine’s 2nd District chose me to represent them in Congress,” Golden wrote. “I also know a thing or two about winning in tough circumstances. So, I know you have to tip your hat to Paul LePage for winning in the midst of this Blue Tsunami. I stand ready to work with him to ensure the smooth transition that Mainers deserve.”

The rare red pickup

News Center Maine reported LePage is on track to be the only Republican this cycle to flip a Democratic House seat that was not redrawn by redistricting. Republicans flipped two redrawn seats — Texas’s 32nd and Tennessee’s 9th — while Democrats flipped dozens of GOP-held districts in the broader midterm wave.

Bangor Daily News noted LePage’s 5,418-vote first-choice cushion is more than double the edge Golden held when that paper and Decision Desk HQ called the 2024 runoff. In 2024, nearly 91% of blank-style ballots were set aside and only a few hundred transferred. If that pattern holds, Dunlap cannot close a 5,000-plus gap from 6,140 blanks and write-ins.

Decision Desk HQ projected Thursday that the race will go to ranked choice with LePage ahead by about 5,383 votes, and that the tabulation will handle only blank votes and write-ins.

Maine’s Republican Party congratulated “Congressman-elect Paul LePage,” saying he “always puts people before politics” and would fight to lower costs, keep streets safe, and defend freedoms.

Bellows said the first step Monday is verifying municipal totals. “Once the election night totals are verified, assuming neither candidate received a majority of the votes, which is what we are observing now, we will proceed to the ranked choice voting tabulation,” she said.

What to watch: Monday’s ranked-choice tabulation in Augusta, the official canvass, and whether any late challenges appear once blanks are dropped from the pool.