Shapiro Backs Popular-Vote Plan That Would Have Handed Trump’s 2016 Pennsylvania Electors to Clinton

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro just told a room full of Democrats that he wants his state’s presidential electors decided by the rest of the country.

Asked at Crooked Con in Washington on Saturday whether he would push Pennsylvania into the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact now that Democrats hold the legislature, Shapiro didn’t hesitate. “Yeah, look, I think the national popular vote makes sense. My views on that have not changed,” he told Pod Save America host Jon Favreau. “I’ll work with lawmakers to figure out what the right mechanism is for moving forward on that.”

That matters because Shapiro is the one signature the plan needs in the biggest swing state on the map. Pennsylvania carries 19 electoral votes. The compact is 48 short of the 270 it needs to switch on, and Democrats spent election week counting the five new blue trifectas, Pennsylvania first among them, that could get it there.

What it would have done in 2016

Here is the part the clip skips. Under the compact, a member state hands every one of its electors to whoever wins the national popular vote, no matter how its own voters went.

Run that against the last time it would have mattered. According to the FEC’s official 2016 results, Donald Trump carried Pennsylvania 2,970,733 to 2,926,441, a margin of 44,292 votes. Hillary Clinton won the national popular vote 65,853,514 to 62,984,828, a margin of 2,868,686.

With Pennsylvania in the compact, the state’s 20 electors that year would have gone to Clinton. The voters of Pennsylvania picked Trump, and their electors would have voted for the other candidate.

Where did Clinton’s national edge come from? California. The same FEC report shows she won it 8,753,792 to 4,483,814, a margin of 4,269,978 votes. That is bigger than her entire national margin. One state’s landslide would have decided which way Pennsylvania’s electors went.

He has wanted this for years

Favreau opened the question by reminding Shapiro, “You said in 2020 that the Electoral College should be abolished.” He did. In December 2020, as attorney general, he told MSNBC, “We need to make sure that the will of the people and a national popular vote is what governs future elections.” Then on Jan. 6, 2021, the day Congress met to count the electoral votes, he posted this:

Saturday he called himself proud of the role his state plays. “We’re the ultimate swing state in Pennsylvania. We’re the biggest swing state. We’re proud of that role we play,” he said. “I think Pennsylvania can still play a massive role, even in a national popular vote.”

He didn’t say how. Swing states get the visits, the ad money and the attention because their electors can go either way. Take away the state’s say over its own electors and candidates have every reason to run up the score in big blue metros instead.

Pennsylvania has never come close

This is new ground for the state. The National Popular Vote group’s own state-by-state status page lists only one step in Pennsylvania: an informational hearing in 2025. No chamber has ever passed it. The compact today counts 19 jurisdictions with 222 electoral votes.

Other Democratic governors have balked. Nevada’s legislature passed the compact in 2019, and Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak vetoed it, warning it could diminish his state’s influence over presidential elections. Shapiro, who runs a bigger swing state, is now saying the opposite on camera.

The constitutional question

The Constitution lets each state appoint electors “in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct.” But Article I, Section 10 also says no state shall, “without the Consent of Congress,” enter into “any Agreement or Compact with another State.” Notre Dame law professor Derek Muller has long argued the compact can’t take effect without that consent.

What happens next

No bill is moving yet, and Shapiro gave no timeline. The compact only governs an election if states with 270 electoral votes have it in force by July 20 of that year, so the window for 2028 closes in summer 2028. Watch Harrisburg once the new session opens. If a compact bill lands on Shapiro’s desk, he has now said where he stands.

Bottom line: In 2016, Pennsylvania voted for Trump. Under the plan its governor just endorsed, that wouldn’t have mattered.