Trump Put New Russia Sanctions on Hold and Got Tough on Zelensky. Here's What He's Playing For.

In less than two weeks, President Donald Trump has changed how the United States handles the war between Russia and Ukraine. On Oct. 9 he struck a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin to move Russian diesel fuel onto world markets. On Oct. 16 he put on hold a package of new Russia sanctions that Congress passed and he signed in September. And on Monday he said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky should step aside from the peace talks: "I think it's time for somebody else to negotiate on behalf of Ukraine," the Associated Press reported.

The AP called it a new low in U.S.-Ukraine ties, and much of the press followed. Read the documents and Trump's own words, and a different picture emerges. He didn't throw away his strongest weapon against Moscow. He holstered it, where Putin can see it.

What Trump actually signed

The law is the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, named for the late South Carolina senator. It passed the Senate 86-11 in August. It called for a 500 percent tariff on Russian goods, plus 100 percent tariffs on the five biggest buyers of Russian oil and gas if they kept buying after Oct. 18.

Congress also wrote in an off switch. Section 115 says the president "may" waive any of it, as long as he certifies to Congress that the waiver is "in the national interests of the United States." Trump's Oct. 16 order does exactly that. The fine print most coverage skipped: "nothing in this order affects any sanctions or other measures" already in place against Russia under earlier executive orders. Every existing sanction stays on.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio called it a 60-day pause to study the impact on the U.S. and global economy, NBC News reported. Trump explained the rest himself on Truth Social: "I am in the process of negotiating Peace in the war between Russia and Ukraine, and don't want to do anything that will drive, foolishly, Russia away from the bargaining table." Then the line that matters most: "I can sign it later, or any time that I want!"

Picture a police negotiator at a standoff with his gun holstered. He hasn't disarmed. He's giving the other side a reason to keep talking, and everyone knows how fast that gun comes out. Trump said as much Monday:

The diesel math

The second reason is one every trucker and farmer feels. Diesel averaged $6.18 a gallon in the week of Oct. 12, per the Energy Information Administration, up from $3.62 a year ago. It peaked at $6.53 on Sept. 21.

Trump's Oct. 9 announcement said Russia would supply "over 300,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel to the American and Global Marketplace" right away, with more to follow in November and beyond. "Lower prices for Americans, especially our Great Farmers, Ranchers, and Truckers, is my Greatest Priority," he wrote.

The same day, the Treasury Department issued General License 135, which allows deals for Russian diesel through April 7, 2027. It still blocks any debits from accounts at U.S. banks held by Russia's central bank, its National Wealth Fund or its Finance Ministry. "No sanctions were lifted on Friday," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on NBC, per the Daily Caller. Energy Secretary Chris Wright put it plainly:

On Monday in Kansas, Trump added an $8 billion Harvest Fuel Relief Program to help farmers cover diesel costs this harvest, Newsmax reported.

The refinery problem

Trump's third point is about what is pushing diesel up. Ukraine has been hitting Russian refineries with drones, and Trump wrote that Zelensky does it "knowing that these attacks are seriously hurting the world diesel markets, including those in the United States. Farmers, ranchers, and businesses of all kinds are suffering greatly from this."

On Oct. 11 he announced an energy ceasefire, and Britain, France, Canada and the European Union all backed the call.

Ukraine paused its refinery strikes for three days. Then Zelensky told the Financial Times, "We're done," CNN reported.

Patriots, intel and who pays

Kyiv also says Washington is slow-walking Patriot air-defense missiles. The Washington Post reported Monday that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth hasn't yet signed off on some Patriot transfers from allied countries, though he hasn't rejected them and keeps approving other U.S. help, per Anadolu's summary. NATO officials say allied-funded deliveries are continuing, according to Euronews.

On intelligence, Rubio said flatly, "There has been no pause." Zelensky himself told NBC's "Meet the Press" that intelligence sharing Ukraine had flagged earlier in the week appeared to be "de-blocked." His words: "Now it works," RFE/RL reported.

Then there is the bill. Congress appropriated $174.2 billion for Ukraine in five aid packages from 2022 to 2024, according to the federal Ukraine oversight office. Under Trump, Ukraine and its allies now pay for American weapons; NATO allies and partners had put $6.3 billion into that program, called PURL, as of June. "We've given a lot to Ukraine. They've given nothing to us. Remember that," Trump said Monday, per the New York Post.

Bessent pointed at Europe: "The Europeans are financing the Russian war machine." By the European Commission's own count, EU countries paid Russia $209 billion for energy from March 2022 through July 2026, Euronews reported. That is more than every dollar of those five U.S. aid packages combined.

The other side

Zelensky called the sanctions pause "a financial reward for Putin." Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut called it a "craven, cowardly action," NBC News reported. Trump's answer: "All I want is for Russia and Ukraine to stop that stupid war."

What happens next

Trump envoy Steve Witkoff is in Oslo on Tuesday for talks with Zelensky and European leaders, then is expected in Moscow to see Putin. Those talks may cover Stephen Hubbard, a 74-year-old American held by Russia since 2022, Euronews reported. Trump's Oct. 18 post said, "Great progress is being made, and that includes current hostage negotiations!"

Next month Trump heads to the APEC summit in Shenzhen, China, set for Nov. 18-19, where Putin has floated a three-way meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. "If President Xi wants to have it, I'd have it," Trump said, adding that he would want to talk about "nuclear weapons and denuclearization," RFE/RL reported.

Rubio's 60-day review runs into mid-December. The diesel license runs to April 2027. And the sanctions Trump signed are still sitting in the drawer, one signature away.