The U.S. and Israel Have Drawn Up a Three-Day Iran Strike Plan. Trump Won't Use It Before the Midterms.

The U.S. and Israeli militaries have drawn up specific plans for a short, intense round of strikes on Iran after the Nov. 3 midterm elections, The New York Times reported Wednesday night, citing U.S. officials and others briefed on the planning. The likely targets are Iran's energy infrastructure, its nuclear sites, and its missile and drone arsenal. President Trump has not approved it.

He has also kept his word. On Oct. 8, Trump wrote on Truth Social that "we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections," Axios reported. According to the Times, he has vetoed several plans for a return to major combat this year, most recently this month, when U.S. and Israeli defense officials said an operation was nearly ready to launch.

Hours after the report, Trump made clear the wait won't be long. He told reporters Wednesday night that the U.S. is not negotiating with Iran and that something will happen "fairly soon." "Most people seem to think it's after the election," he added, the Times of Israel reported.

What's in the plan

The U.S. and Israeli air forces have stepped up exercises, flying over Iraq to rehearse strike maneuvers, the Times reported. Some U.S. planners believe a campaign of about three days could do enough damage to Iran's economy to change its position, and some officials said refineries would be spared so gasoline prices don't climb, Haaretz reported, summarizing the Times. Planning also covers Pickaxe Mountain, the deeply buried nuclear site Iran calls Kooh Kolang, NDTV Profit reported.

The timing follows military logic, not just politics. The full American force, three aircraft carriers, thousands of Marines, fighter jets and special operations forces, won't be in place until early November, when nights over Iran also get longer. The U.S. military prefers to strike in the dark. A White House official told the Times the administration does not comment on military plans "that may or may not exist."

Picture a demolition crew parked at the curb. The equipment is unloaded, the plans are stamped and the crew is ready. Nothing moves until one man signs, and he has said he won't sign before Election Day.

Hegseth in Israel

War Secretary Pete Hegseth made an unannounced stop in Israel on Monday and met Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at Ovda Air Base in the south, Breitbart reported. U.S. officials told the Times the two discussed new strikes. Hegseth wouldn't share details, but the next day in Wisconsin he described the troops he had just visited in the Middle East as "resolute."

"We want to make sure that Iran never gets a nuclear weapon. We're prepared to contribute any way necessary," Hegseth said, according to the Pentagon's transcript. "We've done historic devastation to their military and military capabilities, but if they're not willing to give it up and the president asks us to go even further, we're prepared."

Asked what he would tell voters uneasy about the war, he put it plainly: "President Trump's got all the cards here. And Iran's going to have to make a decision and, ultimately, we have a very strong commander-in-chief who will make sure this thing is decided decisively."

The choice is Iran's

Trump has framed it the same way. "Do we want to win the nice way, or the not-nice way?" he asked reporters in the Oval Office on Tuesday, Dawn reported. At a South Carolina rally Wednesday, he said the U.S. could walk away today but wants a result that holds: "We could leave now, but we want to make sure it lasts for a long time," World Israel News reported.

That is peace through strength in practice. A person briefed on the planning told NPR the U.S. buildup could also be part of a campaign to pressure Iran into a diplomatic deal. A loaded plan on the table is what gives a deal a chance.

Iran's answer

Tehran says it is ready either way. "We are just as prepared for diplomacy as we are for war," Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Iranian state media Thursday, NPR reported. NPR's source also said Israel had first planned to strike in mid-October, about two weeks before its own Oct. 27 election, and Trump objected.

Iran's actions say more than its words. On Thursday, the Revolutionary Guard said four vessels it accused of illegal oil transfers in the northern Persian Gulf were hit and caught fire, and three more struck mines west of the Strait of Hormuz. It warned the U.S. military of a wider response against American bases, Reuters reported. A senior Guard official, Yadollah Javani, said Iran was prepared to destroy the internet cables under the strait. "The Americans must leave the region," he said, according to NPR.

Iran's proxies are busy too. The Houthis in Yemen keep firing at Saudi airports and oil fields, which is why the State Department ordered U.S. diplomats' families out of Saudi Arabia on Wednesday. Read our report on that here.

The Israel factor

Trump made his partner clear on Oct. 18, endorsing Netanyahu for reelection. Iran has been "systematically destroyed, both Militarily and Financially, and unless they change their ways, rapidly, we will soon finish the job," he wrote on Truth Social. "If Israel has the wrong Leader, which would be anyone other than Bibi, America will have to do this work ourselves, and I am not inclined to do so."

Netanyahu went further on Wednesday, telling new Israeli army officers that Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has "pulled the safety pin."

Israel's vote on Tuesday matters here. If Netanyahu loses, he would stay on only as a caretaker and would find it hard to launch a war, the Times noted.

How we got here

The U.S. and Israel launched the war on Feb. 28, and Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, was killed in the first wave of strikes, the BBC reported. His son Mojtaba was named his successor in March. A Pakistan-brokered ceasefire took hold April 7. Iran has choked shipping through the Strait of Hormuz since the war began, and the U.S. has answered with a blockade of Iran's ports, a blockade Trump said on Oct. 8 "will remain in full force and effect." U.S. strikes have badly degraded Iran's air force, air defenses and navy, NPR reported.

Eight months later, Iran still refuses to permanently give up its nuclear program, and it is still hitting tankers and threatening American bases. Trump promised not to strike before the vote, and he has kept that promise while keeping every option ready for the day after. Tehran has about two weeks to decide which way this ends: the nice way, or the other one.